Of The Billings Gazette Staff
The Northern Yellowstone elk herd is larger than last year, according to a recent aerial survey, but the number of calves remains one-half to one-third of what wildlife managers would like to see.A total of 7,109 elk were counted when the annual survey was taken on Jan. 30 and Feb 9 by the Northern Yellowstone Cooperative Wildlife Working Group. That compares to the 6,279 to 6,738 elk counted in the past three winters. The herd was evenly split between the park and north of the park.
"Even though biologists counted 830 more elk than last year, it is unlikely we will see any significant long-term increase in elk numbers until there is long-term improvement in elk calf recruitment rates," Tom Lemke, a Fish, Wildlife and Parks biologist, said in a statement.
The cow-to-calf ratio last year was 11 calves per 100 cows. Wildlife managers would prefer to see 20 to 30 calves per 100 cows. Calf counts are taken in March.
Predation of elk calves by grizzly bears and wolves is blamed for the lower calf numbers. But the overall drop in elk numbers has also been attributed to extended drought and hunter harvests.
"I'd expect numbers of elk on the northern range to remain similar to this year's count or decrease somewhat further in coming years if predator to prey ratios remain relatively high - even if human harvests remain low," said P.J. White, Yellowstone National Park biologist.
A reduction in hunter licenses outside the park in Montana may be partly to blame for the increase in elk numbers. The state Fish, Wildlife and Parks decreased the number of antlerless elk permits from 1,102 in 2005 to 100 per season between 2006 and 2009. The idea behind the reduction in permits was to increase the number of breeding-age cows.
Hunters have long decried the reintroduction of wolves to the park and their effect on the herd. Since reintroduction in 1995, elk numbers in the northern herd have dropped 60 percent from all-time highs.
Yet the number of elk wintering outside the park is well within the range FWP likes to see north of the park and on its Dome Mountain Wildlife Management Area. This year, 3,511 elk were counted north of the park with 2,896 wintering in the Dome Mountain area. FWP's objectives call for 3,000 to 5,000 elk north of Yellowstone with 2,000 to 3,000 on the WMA.
"In fact, elk survey numbers have been within population objectives for about the last seven years," Lemke said.

Lemke said increased elk numbers and improved calf survival for two to three years would be needed before hunting permits may be increased for the area.
"It's encouraging to see the count bump up, but I don't think we can justify an increase in permits based on that," he said.

This year's increase in elk numbers could reflect several factors, including better counting conditions, a reduced hunter harvest and less wolf predation. Wolf numbers in the park are down 40 percent from 2008 - dropping from 94 to 56 wolves in the northern range. The wolf decline has been blamed on disease and lethal fights between packs battling over
limited resources and range.
The northern Yellowstone elk herd winters between the northeast entrance of Yellowstone National Park and Dome Mountain/Dailey Lake in the Paradise Valley. The wildlife working group, formed in 1974, is composed of representatives of FWP, the Park Service, Forest Service and U.S. Geological Survey.






